Electronics and growth cycles in Singapore

With the help of spectral and structural time series analyses it is found that the demand for electronics in the USA goes through a cycle with a period of about four to ® ve years. Because of the synchronized nature of the electronics market, the global demand for electronics is likely to follow a similar cycle. The electronics cycle is unlikely to be caused by a regular business cycle. The major cause of the electronics cycle appears to be a product cycle which results from the introduction of new products to the market. As a result countries like Singapore which depend heavily on electronics exports may face roller coaster rides, especially in their manufacturing growth. Product diversi® cation is the best solution to the problem.